By: Kelly Asche, Senior Researcher
It’s 2025, and we are still hearing about workforce shortages and still seeing the “We’re hiring!” signs all around rural Minnesota. The end of the pandemic is a few years behind us now, but people are still wondering, “Are we getting back to normal?” Well, the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development has released their most recent data from their job vacancy survey.
It tells us that the job vacancy rate has recovered from the extreme highs during the pandemic, but there are still a lot of vacancies to fill across Minnesota. The real labor picture can be hidden, though, by the number of filled jobs in some regions and how fast those are growing (or not growing). But one thing remains clear, people recruitment and retention is the number one economic development issue in the state.
Job vacancy rates
To compare how competitive employers may find the labor force market across regions in Minnesota, we use the job vacancy rate. This is the number of open jobs divided by the number of filled jobs in each region. The higher the percentage, the more unfilled jobs there are, and the more competitive it is for employers trying to recruit workers. And right now, it’s definitely a workers’ market.
Figure 1 shows job vacancy rates for each planning region from 2005 to 2024. Since the low point in 2008, the job vacancy rate has been increasing, especially in Greater Minnesota. It peaked during the height of the pandemic with rates near 10% in much of Greater Minnesota. Since then, the rates have dropped and have become more manageable, although still above what we consider a “healthy” range (3% to 4.5%). Both Southeast and the Seven County Mpls-St. Paul region are quite a bit lower than the rest of the state.
Figure 1: Job vacancy rates have declined since peaking in 2021, but most of Greater Minnesota still has very high rates. Data: MN DEED, Job Vacancy Survey
However, job vacancy rates aren’t necessarily a good indicator of just how many job vacancies there are. If a region is successful at filling jobs while also continuing to add vacancies, the rate will decrease, essentially hiding the fact that there are still a lot of vacancies. The job vacancy rate is a good barometer for how competitive employers find the labor market, but the change in the actual number of vacancies can be a better way of looking at employment opportunities for workers.
Figure 2 shows the percent change in the actual number of vacancies since 2005. Most regions have twice as many vacancies or almost twice as many compared to 2005. In 2024, Northwest Minnesota had 159% more vacancies than in 2005, while Southeast had 138% more, Northeast 134% more, and Central, 118% more. Southwest and the Seven County Mpls-St. Paul regions were lower with only around 80% more vacancies.
Figure 2: The number of job vacancies has doubled since 2005 for most of Minnesota. Data: MN DEED, Job Vacancy Survey
High vacancy rates, different reasons
If you compare Figures 1 & 2, you will notice something interesting. The Southeast region of Minnesota has a relatively low vacancy rate in 2024, 4%, while also having high growth in job vacancies, 138% since 2005. At the same time, Southwest has one of the higher vacancy rates, 5.2%, while having the lowest growth in job vacancies, 82% more in 2024 than in 2005. Why?
It’s because of the very different rates jobs are being filled at depending on the region. Figure 3 shows the percent change in filled jobs (left) and job vacancies (right) from 2005 to 2023 (note: Figures 1 & 2 went to 2024). Filled jobs are increasing in some regions while decreasing in others. At the same time, the actual number of job vacancies continues to be very high across all of Minnesota.
Figure 3: Despite having a high number of vacancies, not all regions are growing the number of filled jobs. Data: MN DEED, Job Vacancy Survey
With Table 1, each region appears to be on one of four trajectories:
Table 1
So what does this say about each region? Well, the data to articulate why some regions have differing trajectories isn’t available. For example, we can’t tell which job vacancies are new year-to-year, how long employers have been trying to fill them, and whether the job was newly created or is open due to retirement. But, we can speculate a bit.
The Southwest region has experienced some of the largest declines in population over the last three decades and tends to have an older workforce compared to the rest of the state. This has led to lots of retirements and a lack of people to fill those open jobs. This pattern would explain the high job vacancy rate, but the lack of growth in the number of filled jobs.
The Northwest and Southeast have prominent manufacturing, healthcare, and other industries that have seen growth in their sectors, while also aggressively pursuing initiatives and programming to retain and recruit workforce. These employers have been aggressive at recruiting and retaining workforce over the last ten years, which may have helped them fill jobs despite dealing with a workforce that’s also retiring, leading to the high number of vacancies.
The Northeast region is experiencing a large growth in job vacancies but negative growth in the number of jobs being filled. The primary industries—extractive and tourism—can be very turbulent, leading to jobs coming and going quickly. The population is also on average older and shrinking, especially among prime-working age adults, which would explain the high growth in job vacancies and negative growth in filled jobs.
The remaining regions, Central and Seven County Mpls-St. Paul, have experienced significant growth in their filled jobs, while maintaining a modest number of job vacancies. These regions experience the largest population increases in the state, providing the regions’ employers a consistent pool of workers to fill jobs, while job vacancies also grow at a modest, controlled rate, indicating steady economic growth.
Although all of Minnesota is struggling with historically high job vacancies, it doesn’t mean this challenge looks the same across every region. However, what is true across all of Minnesota is the demand for labor force. It doesn’t matter if you’re in Southwest or the Seven County Mpls-St. Paul, the impacts of a large number of retirees are the same. Our policies can no longer reflect the reality of the 1970s, when there were more people than jobs and the common policy phrase was “jobs, jobs, jobs.” Policies have to reflect the current reality: people, people, people.
